Monday, August 6, 2012

Building A Dynasty: Prospect Scouting #2k12

Last week  Building A Dynasty: Went Out With A Bang #2k12

The regular season is over and it didn't end the way we wanted it to.We had some hard times, like the start of the season and the team not jellying. We also had great ones, like 3 players making the all-star team and the run for the playoffs. All that was the past ,time for the future. Rookie time. This year we have pick 2,4 and 9. We got two of the picks thru trades and I can for one say that we are happy to have got the picks. Now with the picks comes the scouting, we been on it.

The reports have us taking Duane Kerr at 2 and K. Sutton at 4. 

Duane Kerr is the top ranked wing player on our board (Pembe is in the guard group), but it's more so due to his abilities as a hustle player, competitor, defender, rebounder, and his ability to do all the little things so well than it is his ability to score the basketball. With that said, it's not surprising Kerr ranks near the bottom of the wings we compiled stats for in overall scoring efficiency, at 5th of 18 overall with 0.948 points per possession. Kerr 12.3 possessions used per game also ranks second to last of all players, coming in only ahead of UKC teammate  Kevin Tucker.

When looking deeper into some specific numbers, things look more favorable for Kerr , starting with him drawing a free-throw attempt on 18.2% of all possessions, which is easily the top number of all wings, and well ahead of Kris Joseph's second-ranked 15.0%.

Kerr gets out on the break the third most often of all wings, seeing possessions in transition 25.0% of the time, but scoring only a middle-of-the-pack 1.163 PPP on those possessions. He also sees shots around the basket more frequently than any other wing, with a staggering 47.9% of his half court field-goal attempts coming around the rim. His 1.222 PPP on these shots ranks only 11th of 18, but is still a strong upward drag on his overall efficiency due to the naturally efficient nature of shots directly at the basket.

Looking directly on the other side of the coin,  Kerr 22.4% of shots coming as jumpers is the fifth lowest rate in the group, and his 0.712 PPS on these shots ranks dead last, and well below second-to-last Khris Middleton's 0.827 PPS. It's fairly clear the simplest thing  Kerr could do to round out his game and fix a huge weakness in his game would be change his mechanics and develop into a solid spot-up shooter, even if that's obviously easier said than done.

We are set on picking Kerr, he is our guy. During the season we have been messing around with a lot of  lineups. The one that seem to work best is 

PG- Holiday 
SG- Stucky  
SF- Korver 
C- Bynum 

That lineup brings us a lot of shooting and really gives us speed, drafting Kerr will give us a upgraded Korver. Just playing, no diss to Korver but he is way better then Korver.  At first we had Young in at the starting PF but he really didn't give me what I wanted. He plays with his back to the basket but I really want a PF to play face up. Chandler have been doing that. I like to spread the floor and leave the paint for Bynum.

K. Sutton

Sutton one of the top prospect in this group, and seemingly bound for a top-4 selection on draft day. Despite his lofty projection,  Sutton  did not have an astounding year on paper relative to the other prospects in this group.

Looking at  Sutton's numbers, the first thing the stands out is his usage relative to the other top prospects. Using 14.6 possessions per-game,  Sutton ranks 15th of the 21 players in this group. Surrounded by upperclassmen like Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker,  Sutton  was not always a focal point for the UVA offensively.

Often touted as an excellent jump shooter,  Sutton  ranked 5th worst among the 21 players in this group in shooting efficiency pulling up off the dribble (0.615 Points Per-Possession) and below average off the catch (1.074 PPP vs. 1.12 PPP). Struggling to find his range for stretches,  Sutton 's excellent shooting mechanics and footwork began to pay dividends for him down the stretch, as his catch and shoot efficiency over the last 12 games of the season would have placed him third in this group at 1.372 PPP.  Sutton 's numbers for the whole year do not give much credence to comparisons to Ray Allen, but his play late in the year gave teams an eyeful of his prolific spot-up scoring ability.

I really want to bring him into the team. Here's to hoping we can put this man in a Bucks jersey. 

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